the constant skeptic

(disclaimer - this is still a work in progress, I did not get to edit this post as much as I wanted to, but it is new years eve so bear with me.)

HEADLINE: ( courtesy of metaefficient.com )

North America’s Largest Solar-Electric Plant Switched On

North America’s largest solar photovoltaic system is now running and generating power — about 30 million kilowatt-hours of electricity annually. The 14 megawatt power plant is at the Nellis Air Force Base in the sunny desert of southern Nevada. It’s expected to save about $1 million in power costs annually, and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 24,000 tons each year.

This is a huge indicator that the US is moving towards accepting the fact that they need to be more diverse when it comes to energy resources. One day, the oil will be gone and by then all of the major players of the oil industry will have already bought up, invested in, and created a new ‘alternative energy industry’ complete with marketing strategies, fancy new gadgets, ‘green’ badging (as can already be witnessed by the latest ads from Exxon and BP solar.)

GET INFORMED:

Check out Exxon Mobil’s latest energy outlook 2007 PDF for 2030 including assessments for nuclear energy, fossil fuels, and alternative fuels. (PDF)

Here is a description of it from the Exxon Mobil site:

This year’s report focuses on energy demand to the year 2030, with particular emphasis on the increasing needs of the power generation and transportation sectors. It also examines how rising demand will be met from the various energy sources available, including fossil fuels, nuclear power and renewable energies. It also provides insight to the challenge of meeting growing energy needs while significantly mitigating global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions.

REBADGING GROUPS OF NATIONS: (OECD VS NON OECD)

This chart can be pretty confusing unless you know what you are looking at.

OECD countries are those that are top tier countries that participate and contribute to the global economy:

The ORGANIZATION FOR ECONOMIC COOPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT

Founding members (1961): (courtesy of wikipedia)

Austria*

Belgium*

Canada*

Denmark*

France*

Germany*

Greece*

Iceland*

Ireland*

Italy*

Luxembourg*

Netherlands*

Norway*

Portugal*

Spain*

Sweden*

Switzerland*

Turkey

United Kingdom*

United States*

Joined later (listed chronologically with year of admission):

Japan* (1964)

Finland* (1969)

Australia* (1971)

New Zealand* (1973)

Mexico (1994)

Czech Republic* (1995)

South Korea* (1996)

Hungary (1996)

Poland (1996)

Slovakia (2000)

So, basically, if you refer back to the chart, the NON OECD countries are the ‘developing’ nations that will have the highest growth in demand for renewable and non-renewable resources in the coming decades.

What is interesting to me is that COAL not OIL will be the major source of demand for energy by the non OECD nations. This is another indicator if you connect the dots from exxon to bp solar to OECD to OPEC to the World Bank to wikipedia and finally to Kevin Bacon that alternative energy investment is a sure thing.

Don’t believe me? Fine. Do your own research. Investigate which start up solar companies are being bought up by big oil corporations and invest in these companies, because the market has spoken.

There will be no PEAK OIL DISASTER. Long before the oil runs out, the alternative energy market will be prosperous and fueling the world economy. Do not believe the hype from the gloom and doom forecasters that love to scare monger.

From the Experts:

Here is an academic who believes that society is not prepared for the coming oil crisis and is cashing in on fear mongering… who can blame him I guess

(thanks Peak Oil News Blog)

Colin Campbell, a British geologist who popularized the peak- oil theory in his book “The Coming Oil Crisis” (Multi-Science Publishing Co. and Petroconsultants SA, 1997, 210 pages) says world production of conventional oil, the kind that comes from gushing wells, is reaching its apex.

Colin Campbell, a former petroleum geologist who is now a trustee of the U.K.-based Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, warned way back in 2002 that we were headed for peak oil production and that this would lead to “war, starvation, economic recession, possibly even the extinction of homo sapiens.”

“Colin Campbell has the worst forecasting record on oil supply,” says Mike Lynch, who is president of the Global Petroleum Service (SEER), “and that’s saying a lot.” He points out that in a 1989 article for the journal Noroil, Mr. Campbell claimed the peak of world oil production had already passed and incorrectly predicted that oil soon would cost $30 to $50 a barrel. As for Mr. Simmons, Mr. Lynch dismisses him with a sneer: “Petroleum engineers know a lot more about petroleum engineering than a Harvard MBA.”

Don’t you love it when academics and industry spokesmen clash? I am skeptical about both of their statements and I just have not done enough research of my own yet to decide whether or not the world’s transition out of this petroleum age will take a smooth or bumpy course. All I know for sure is that there are people out there with detailed plans on how to make money on this transition.